Super Typhoons and the Human Cost of Climate Change in the Philippines

The Philippines is facing stronger and more frequent typhoons, driven by warming oceans, making this the country’s most urgent climate challenge. These intensified storms not only destroy homes and communities but also tear families apart—forcing millions to evacuate, rebuild, or even relocate entirely. The effects are deeply personal: parents struggle to keep their children safe, provide food, and find secure shelter, while livelihoods are often wiped out in an instant. The economic impact is immense, with projections suggesting the country could lose over 13% of its economy by 2040. These storms also worsen food shortages, spread diseases like dengue and cholera, and threaten the safety of millions, especially those living in coastal areas. The growing intensity of typhoons highlights how climate change is making life increasingly difficult for Filipino families each year.

Philippines Climate Risk Profile

Climate Risk Profiles - Jamaica and the Philippines

New, Climate Risk Profiles for Jamaica and the Phillipines

Navigating Climate Risks: A Comparative Insight into Jamaica and the Philippines

Climate change presents an existential threat to vulnerable nations, with Jamaica and the Philippines standing out as critical examples. Both nations grapple with escalating climate impacts, yet their experiences offer unique lessons for adaptation and resilience.

The Philippines: A Storm-Filled Horizon

With over 7,600 islands, the Philippines is a frontline state for climate-induced disasters. Averaging 20 typhoons annually, the archipelago faces mounting challenges from rising sea levels, intensified flooding, and landslides. Recent decades have seen some of the strongest storms on record, such as Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and Rai (2021), displacing millions and causing substantial economic loss.

Urbanization adds complexity, with 70% of urban residents at risk due to rising seas. Informal settlements, often concentrated in flood-prone areas, amplify vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, agriculture, health, and infrastructure sectors struggle under climate stressors like erratic rainfall and extreme heat. Yet, the Philippines actively pursues solutions: its National Adaptation Plan and disaster management laws exemplify structured resilience planning.

Jamaica: Struggling Against the Tide

In the Caribbean, Jamaica’s climate challenges stem from rising temperatures, stronger hurricanes, and coastal erosion. Over half its population lives within two kilometers of the coast, underscoring exposure to sea-level rise and storm surges. With 90% of GDP tied to tourism and coastal industries, climate impacts are as economic as they are environmental.

Jamaica’s food and water security face heightened risks. Extreme weather disrupts agriculture and water supply, while saltwater intrusion and erratic rainfall patterns jeopardize freshwater resources. Compounding these issues are threats to coral reefs and mangroves—key natural buffers against storms and sources of economic and ecological vitality.

Shared Challenges, Unique Pathways

Both nations illuminate the intersection of climate stressors and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Women, children, and Indigenous communities bear the brunt of climate impacts, yet their inclusion in adaptation efforts unlocks pathways for innovation. In Jamaica, for example, women-led initiatives and Maroon communities emphasize local resilience strategies. Similarly, in the Philippines, integrating traditional knowledge into modern adaptation plans enhances community engagement.

However, solutions require significant international collaboration and financing. Jamaica has leveraged funds from the Green Climate Fund and others to bolster infrastructure and renewable energy. The Philippines, with its extensive donor support, has implemented multi-hazard warning systems and urban adaptation programs.

The Road Ahead

As nations on the climate frontline, Jamaica and the Philippines exemplify both the urgency and potential of climate adaptation. Their stories reinforce a critical truth: while vulnerabilities are local, solutions demand global solidarity. Building resilience isn’t just a necessity for these nations—it’s a blueprint for a sustainable future.

Climate Risk Profiles

Jamaica

The Philippines

Podcast

Climate Change Risk Profiles - Jamaica and the Philippines

This podcast discusses two USAID climate risk profiles, one each for Jamaica and the Philippines. The profiles highlight the vulnerabilities of these nations to climate change impacts, emphasizing how these risks threaten development goals by impacting key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and energy. The discussion details specific hazards faced by each country—hurricanes for Jamaica and typhoons for the Philippines—along with the resulting economic losses and societal impacts, particularly on vulnerable populations such as coastal communities, women, and the poor. Finally, the excerpt underscores the need for adaptation strategies, showcasing community-led initiatives and the role of international organizations like USAID in supporting resilience-building efforts.

The Value of Listening and Responding to the Needs and Concerns of Community Members

It is important to listen to the needs and concerns of community members in order to understand their priorities and to develop programs and projects that are responsive to their needs. Community members are the experts on their own lives and communities, and they should be involved in all aspects of the development process, from needs assessment to implementation. By listening to community members, we can ensure that our programs and projects are effective and sustainable.

Building on existing strengths and assets within the community

Every community has its own strengths and assets. These can include natural resources, human resources, social capital, and cultural assets. It is important to build on these strengths and assets to develop sustainable and resilient communities. By building on existing strengths, we can reduce the need for external assistance and ensure that communities are able to meet their own needs in the long term.

Providing opportunities for community members to participate in decision-making and planning processes

Community members should be involved in all aspects of the development process, from needs assessment to implementation. This is because they are the experts on their own lives and communities, and they have the most to gain from successful development initiatives. By providing opportunities for community participation, we can ensure that development initiatives are responsive to the needs of the community and that they are sustainable in the long term.

Supporting capacity-building and skill-development within the community for climate resilience

Climate change is a major threat to development, and it is important to support communities in building their capacity to adapt to climate change. This can be done by providing training in climate-resilient agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction. It is also important to support the development of community-based organizations that can advocate for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

By listening to the needs and concerns of community members, building on existing strengths and assets, providing opportunities for community participation, and supporting capacity-building and skill-development, we can help communities to become more resilient to climate change and to achieve sustainable development.

The Future of Earth - By Fire

Will it be by fire or by ice that Earth will meet its end? Well it all depends on how you define "end". It has been known for quite some time that eventually the Earth will be swallowed by an expanding sun when the sun reaches its final stages of life as a red giant. This stage will begin sometime between 5 and 7 billion years from now - here is a nice video giving some great visualizations of what we think will happen. But a recent article in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere tells us that we'll have our last best day far sooner. 

The sun is getting brighter (see footnote 1). One of the early challenges for paleoclimatologists (people who study the climates of yesteryear) was understanding the evolution of sun like stars and its impact on climate early in life's history on Earth. In a recent article in the journal JGR-Atmospheres authors Wolf and Toon found that increasing solar luminosity will make the Earth uninhabitable in about 2 billion years (time to start planning folks!). The good news is that though life won't be able to survive, the planet is unlikely to experience a runaway greenhouse effect as may have been the case of Venus.

Somewhat more seriously it is not that clear in my skimming the article (apologies if it is covered - time constraints) if surface albedo might influence the evolution of Earth's climate under a brightening sun. Here is where we find the theories of James Lovelock and the Gaia Hypothesis. 

1 From Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change (pdf)

James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf

Solar luminosity is increasing on long time scales, as our sun is at an early stage of solar evolution, "burning" hydrogen, forming helium by nuclear fusion, slowly getting brighter. The sun's brightness increased steadily through the Cenozoic, by about 0.4 percent according to solar

physics models (Sackmann et al., 1993). 

Urban Climate

A recent journal article by MZ Jacobson et al points out some of the climatological impacts of urbanization on local climate. The land use change that urbanization leads to is known to impact climatological conditions through changes in soil moisture evaporation, transpiration (evaporation from plants), heat absorption and advection (wind).

In this article the authors used models to study the impact of the change in urban extent in Beijing. Beijing provides a good case due to the extreme nature of changes there - the urban extent of the city quadrupled between 2000 and 2009.

Key Points from the article:

• Beijing's expansion created a ring of impact in the new portion of the city
• Without considering the impact of more vehicles and other sources of human caused polution - urbanization's impact on climatological conditions alone slowed winds and increased pollution vertical dilution and increased ground level temperature, and ozone

Interestingly the authors used crowdsourced data on road surface area in their study.

Take homes:
This study found that urbanization changes local climate in these ways - it:

• increases ground level temperature
• decreases ground level humidity
• decreases horizontal movement of air (wind, advection)
• increases vertical movement of air (convection)
• reduces reflectivity of the surface (albedo) causing the retention of more solar energy

These impacts:

• decreased surface pollution by promoting vertical mixing
• but increased surface ozone (O3) due to other changes in the chemical profile of the air

None of these impacts takes into account vehicle use or other pollution sources.

Ring of impact from the mega-urbanization of Beijing between 2000 and 2009 (pages 5740–5756) Mark Z. Jacobson, Son V. Nghiem, Alessandro Sorichetta and Natasha Whitney Article first published online: 19 JUN 2015 | DOI: 10.1002/2014JD023008

Resilience - what it is, and what it could be.

What is resilience and how do you put that into practice? Here are links to three publications that speak to resilience in the context of addressing climate change in cities and what it means in terms of planning and implementation. Resilience is not just "getting back on one's feet and returning to what you had before" but rather an opportunity for fundamental change - or to use the current buss phrase, an opportunity for transformation.

Link to PDF File

The term resilience is increasingly applied in thinking through how to deal with climate change. On one level it can be applied as a way of bridging the historic al divide that has existed between climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Climate resilience refers to both actions that reduce climate impacts as well as actions to respond to climate impacts. Resilience can be seen as a process of learning and innovation—we can always be more resilient. 

There are different definitions of resilience in various disciplines. Reviewing the way s in which the term resilience has been defined is useful for understanding the challenge of dealing with climate change. 

Importantly both of the definitions provided on the facing page emphasize the capabilities to learn and anticipate, as well as to respond to change. 

Abstract

Climate change will have unavoidable impacts on urban systems and populations, especially in Asia where many large cities are exposed. Climate adaptation will be essential, and planning for adaptation can be simplified through operationalizing concepts of climate resilience and vulnerability. This article reviews concepts and theories in a range of diverse fields to illustrate how the general notion of urban climate resilience can be developed into an operational framework for planning practitioners. The framework integrates theoretical and empirical knowledge of the factors contributing to resilience with processes for translating those concepts into practice. The framework includes characteristics of urban systems, the agents (people and organizations) that depend on and manage those systems, institutions that link systems and agents, and patterns of exposure to climate change. It operationalizes these concepts through structured and iterative shared learning approaches that allow local planners to define these factors in their own context, in order to develop practical strategies for local action. The viability of the framework is demonstrated through examples from resilience planning activities undertaken in 10 cities across Asia through the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network funded by the Rockefeller Foundation.

A New World Water Power?

At least that's what the University of Waterloo thinks...

http://www.bulletin.uwaterloo.ca/2008/may/30fr.html

UW could lead the world in water

Waterloo “may be the best positioned” university in North America, perhaps in the world, to be “the leading centre in water research”, says a report that’s being made public this week by UW’s provost.